| Iran's supreme leader, the Ayatollah Ali | | | | chaos to wage war on anyone, Iraqis included, |
| Khamenei, recently told Iraqi Prime Minister | | | | who opposes the formation of an Islamic |
| Nouri al-Maliki that the best way for him to | | | | state. The withdrawal of American troops from |
| end the ongoing violence and ensure stability | | | | Iraq would embolden the jihadists, who would |
| and security was to begin the withdrawal of | | | | then take advantage of the power vacuum to |
| U.S. military forces from Iraq. Khamenei was | | | | promote Islamic rule similar to that of the |
| explicit in his desire to see the rapid | | | | Taliban in Afghanistan.Opposite the parties |
| departure of American soldiers, but the | | | | calling for America to leave Iraq are the |
| consequences of a premature U.S. withdrawal | | | | groups with the most to lose in the event of |
| would prove to be nothing short of | | | | a withdrawal of U.S. troops.First on this |
| catastrophic.There are three basic parties, | | | | list is the current Iraqi unity government. |
| excluding American Democrats, which are | | | | The leaders in Baghdad know that the presence |
| actively pushing for the removal of U.S. and | | | | of coalition forces is the only reason the |
| coalition troops from Iraq: Iran, the Shiite | | | | situation in Iraq has not devolved into |
| faction led by radical Iraqi cleric Muqtada | | | | all-out civil war. Withdrawing American |
| al-Sadr, and the foreign jihadists who have | | | | soldiers and their allies would leave the |
| flocked to Iraq to confront the United States | | | | Shiite and Sunni death squads free to conduct |
| in the Global War on Terror.Iran has been | | | | their sectarian war while a fledgling Iraqi |
| making a concerted effort to establish itself | | | | Army stood by unable to stop the carnage. In |
| as the leading state in the Middle East. In | | | | the event of full-fledged sectarian violence, |
| pursuit of this strategic goal, Khamenei and | | | | the government in Baghdad would collapse, |
| Iranian President Ahmadinejad have been | | | | leaving a void that would likely be filled by |
| actively antagonizing the United States over | | | | the Iranians.The second group opposed to a |
| their nuclear program in order to portray | | | | U.S. withdrawal is the Sunni minority. Yes, |
| Iran as a nation that must be reckoned with. | | | | it's true that the Sunnis make up the bulk of |
| Simultaneously, the Iranians have used | | | | the insurgency waging war against coalition |
| Hezbollah to wage a proxy war against Israel, | | | | troops. But the Sunnis are fighting for a |
| and the Shiites in southern Iraq to foment | | | | place in Shiite dominated Iraqi society. |
| unrest that threatens the fragile government | | | | Waging a ruthless campaign against the U.S. |
| in Baghdad.The conflict in Lebanon and the | | | | and Iraqi armies, and against the central |
| increasing Shiite-Sunni violence are meant to | | | | government, is the only bargaining chip |
| further demonstrate to the west that Iran has | | | | available to a group that would surely be |
| the ability, and the will, to destabilize the | | | | targeted for annihilation in a sectarian war. |
| entire region for political gain. With the | | | | In an odd twist, the Sunnis have to attack |
| United States out of Iraq, there would be | | | | the Americans to make them stay until a |
| little to stop the Iranians from turning Iraq | | | | political accommodation can be |
| into a satellite state that could help cement | | | | reached.Finally, Iraq's neighboring countries |
| Iran's hegemony in the Middle East.Muqtada | | | | are fearful of a powerful Iran, aligned with |
| al-Sadr has been a thorn in the side of the | | | | a Shiite-led Iraq that would threaten Sunni |
| United States since the invasion of Iraq in | | | | regimes in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, and |
| March 2003. His Mehdi Army has confronted | | | | throughout the Middle East. While none of |
| U.S. and coalition troops in battle and his | | | | these governments like the idea of U.S. |
| followers are largely responsible for the | | | | troops in the region, especially for an |
| Shiite death squads attacking the Sunni | | | | extended period, the alternative in the form |
| minority and pushing Iraq closer to all-out | | | | of an Iraq-Iran alliance that could dominate |
| civil war. Al-Sadr is closely aligned with | | | | the entire Middle East is even more |
| the Shiite leadership in Iran and he has | | | | distasteful.Despite the difficulties being |
| consistently called for the withdrawal of all | | | | faced in Iraq, the United States must see |
| U.S. forces from Iraq. The absence of U.S. | | | | this fight through to the end. The fragile |
| troops would allow Al-Sadr's militia to | | | | unity government in Baghdad must be given a |
| conduct a genocide campaign against the | | | | chance to survive on its own.Pulling American |
| Sunnis while providing Iran with additional | | | | troops out now would give the jihadists the |
| leverage over the government in | | | | victory they have long been searching for, |
| Baghdad.Finally, Islamic extremists from all | | | | would make America look weak in the eyes of |
| over the world have traveled to Iraq to join | | | | the world, would thrust Iraq into a bloody |
| the battle against the United States and the | | | | civil war, and would create a power vacuum in |
| west. Al-Qaeda in Iraq and various other | | | | the Middle East that would allow Iran to |
| fundamentalist groups, while constituting a | | | | establish itself as the regional hegemon. |
| minority of the Iraqi insurgency, are | | | | Those are the true consequences of a |
| determined to take advantage of the current | | | | premature American withdrawal. |