| Iran's supreme leader, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, | | | | anyone, Iraqis included, who opposes the formation of |
| recently told Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki that the | | | | an Islamic state. The withdrawal of American troops |
| best way for him to end the ongoing violence and | | | | from Iraq would embolden the jihadists, who would |
| ensure stability and security was to begin the | | | | then take advantage of the power vacuum to |
| withdrawal of U.S. military forces from Iraq. Khamenei | | | | promote Islamic rule similar to that of the Taliban in |
| was explicit in his desire to see the rapid departure of | | | | Afghanistan.Opposite the parties calling for America to |
| American soldiers, but the consequences of a | | | | leave Iraq are the groups with the most to lose in the |
| premature U.S. withdrawal would prove to be nothing | | | | event of a withdrawal of U.S. troops.First on this list is |
| short of catastrophic.There are three basic parties, | | | | the current Iraqi unity government. The leaders in |
| excluding American Democrats, which are actively | | | | Baghdad know that the presence of coalition forces is |
| pushing for the removal of U.S. and coalition troops | | | | the only reason the situation in Iraq has not devolved |
| from Iraq: Iran, the Shiite faction led by radical Iraqi cleric | | | | into all-out civil war. Withdrawing American soldiers and |
| Muqtada al-Sadr, and the foreign jihadists who have | | | | their allies would leave the Shiite and Sunni death |
| flocked to Iraq to confront the United States in the | | | | squads free to conduct their sectarian war while a |
| Global War on Terror.Iran has been making a | | | | fledgling Iraqi Army stood by unable to stop the |
| concerted effort to establish itself as the leading state | | | | carnage. In the event of full-fledged sectarian violence, |
| in the Middle East. In pursuit of this strategic goal, | | | | the government in Baghdad would collapse, leaving a |
| Khamenei and Iranian President Ahmadinejad have | | | | void that would likely be filled by the Iranians.The |
| been actively antagonizing the United States over their | | | | second group opposed to a U.S. withdrawal is the |
| nuclear program in order to portray Iran as a nation | | | | Sunni minority. Yes, it's true that the Sunnis make up |
| that must be reckoned with. Simultaneously, the | | | | the bulk of the insurgency waging war against coalition |
| Iranians have used Hezbollah to wage a proxy war | | | | troops. But the Sunnis are fighting for a place in Shiite |
| against Israel, and the Shiites in southern Iraq to foment | | | | dominated Iraqi society. Waging a ruthless campaign |
| unrest that threatens the fragile government in | | | | against the U.S. and Iraqi armies, and against the |
| Baghdad.The conflict in Lebanon and the increasing | | | | central government, is the only bargaining chip available |
| Shiite-Sunni violence are meant to further demonstrate | | | | to a group that would surely be targeted for annihilation |
| to the west that Iran has the ability, and the will, to | | | | in a sectarian war. In an odd twist, the Sunnis have to |
| destabilize the entire region for political gain. With the | | | | attack the Americans to make them stay until a |
| United States out of Iraq, there would be little to stop | | | | political accommodation can be reached.Finally, Iraq's |
| the Iranians from turning Iraq into a satellite state that | | | | neighboring countries are fearful of a powerful Iran, |
| could help cement Iran's hegemony in the Middle | | | | aligned with a Shiite-led Iraq that would threaten Sunni |
| East.Muqtada al-Sadr has been a thorn in the side of | | | | regimes in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, and throughout |
| the United States since the invasion of Iraq in March | | | | the Middle East. While none of these governments like |
| 2003. His Mehdi Army has confronted U.S. and coalition | | | | the idea of U.S. troops in the region, especially for an |
| troops in battle and his followers are largely responsible | | | | extended period, the alternative in the form of an |
| for the Shiite death squads attacking the Sunni minority | | | | Iraq-Iran alliance that could dominate the entire Middle |
| and pushing Iraq closer to all-out civil war. Al-Sadr is | | | | East is even more distasteful.Despite the difficulties |
| closely aligned with the Shiite leadership in Iran and he | | | | being faced in Iraq, the United States must see this |
| has consistently called for the withdrawal of all U.S. | | | | fight through to the end. The fragile unity government in |
| forces from Iraq. The absence of U.S. troops would | | | | Baghdad must be given a chance to survive on its |
| allow Al-Sadr's militia to conduct a genocide campaign | | | | own.Pulling American troops out now would give the |
| against the Sunnis while providing Iran with additional | | | | jihadists the victory they have long been searching for, |
| leverage over the government in Baghdad.Finally, | | | | would make America look weak in the eyes of the |
| Islamic extremists from all over the world have | | | | world, would thrust Iraq into a bloody civil war, and |
| traveled to Iraq to join the battle against the United | | | | would create a power vacuum in the Middle East that |
| States and the west. Al-Qaeda in Iraq and various | | | | would allow Iran to establish itself as the regional |
| other fundamentalist groups, while constituting a | | | | hegemon. Those are the true consequences of a |
| minority of the Iraqi insurgency, are determined to take | | | | premature American withdrawal. |
| advantage of the current chaos to wage war on | | | | |