| Tantalizingly close, but not quite ready for | | | | gas-electric hybrids like the Prius, not |
| prime time. That's the conclusion of the | | | | FPBEVs or plug-in hybrids [PHEV], which would |
| latest Independent Expert Panel report to the | | | | travel further on electric power, requiring |
| California Air Resources Board (CARB) on the | | | | more energy storage. For PHEVs you need a |
| "Status and Prospects for Zero Emission | | | | class of NiMH battery that offers both power |
| Vehicle Technology." | | | | and energy density. The panel reported that |
| | | | while such a battery would cost, in volume, |
| For the last decade, California has relied on | | | | between $800-$1200 and give the owner an |
| experts to advise it on the progress of | | | | electric only range of 10-20 miles, their |
| electric car technology in all its | | | | research turned up no efforts among |
| manifestations, from battery-only EVs called | | | | manufacturers to develop such a battery, even |
| "Full Performance Battery Electric Vehicles" | | | | though the added cost would more than pay for |
| or FPBEVs in the report to hydrogen-fueled | | | | itself in terms of fuels savings over the |
| vehicles, including those that burn it | | | | life of the vehicle. |
| directly in an internal combustion engine | | | | |
| (H2ICVs) and those that rely on fuel cells | | | | The third class of NiMH battery, the one that |
| (FCEVs). | | | | has been used for years with surprising |
| | | | durable in vehicles like the Toyota RAV4 EV, |
| And with each report there has been progress; | | | | is the high energy version. Here the |
| certainly not a pace that regulators and | | | | executive summary states... |
| environmentalists would wish to see, but | | | | |
| progress, nonetheless. And the 2007 report | | | | It is the conclusion of the Panel, however, |
| doesn't break that pattern. It sees slow, but | | | | that energy density is fundamentally limited |
| steady progress in battery and fuel cell | | | | and marginal for FPBEV applications, and |
| development, but hurdles remain, both | | | | costs remain as high as or higher than in |
| technologically and economically. | | | | 2000 and are unlikely to decline. High energy |
| | | | NiMH technology for possible FPBEV |
| That assessment is already being challenged | | | | applications has not advanced in recent |
| by electric car advocates who see its | | | | years. |
| conclusions still unduly supportive of | | | | |
| hydrogen fuel cell technology, but having | | | | Electric car advocates, many of whom have |
| reviewed the 13-page executive summary, that | | | | practical, day-to-day experience with this |
| appraisal seems unwarranted. In summarizing | | | | type of battery, argue that we don't have to |
| the findings of the panel, which included not | | | | wait on advances in fuel cells, hydrogen |
| only evaluations of three key "candidate" | | | | storage or lithium ion chemistry. The |
| technologies: energy storage, hydrogen | | | | Panasonic batteries in their RAV4 EVs clearly |
| storage and fuel cells but also interviews | | | | demonstrate that we can make use of this |
| with and questionnaires to battery and | | | | battery today, but because, some allege, the |
| automobile manufacturers, they concluded | | | | patents are held by the unit of a major oil |
| that... | | | | company, it is being deliberately kept off |
| | | | the market. A more likely explanation is that |
| ... at this time no fuel cell developer has | | | | the demand for nickel for use in |
| achieved the necessary requirements for | | | | high-strength steel in China and elsewhere is |
| automotive fuel cell commercialization. | | | | putting the squeeze on nickel prices and not |
| | | | oil company greed. |
| Further, on the question of hydrogen storage, | | | | |
| they observe. | | | | The panel report is much more encouraged by |
| | | | the progress in lithium chemistry |
| Storing sufficient hydrogen on a vehicle to | | | | development, stating in the summary, "Li ion |
| power it for adequate distance, safely, and | | | | batteries are making impressive technical |
| at reasonable cost, without an excessive | | | | progress worldwide especially with regard to |
| weight penalty has been and remains a serious | | | | calendar life and cycle life and safety, the |
| challenge for the automobile industry and its | | | | areas of special concern for automotive |
| suppliers. | | | | applications. Promising new materials and |
| | | | chemistries are expanding the capabilities |
| ...Unlike other major technologies being | | | | and prospects of all Li ion technologies." |
| pursued in support of ZEVs, hydrogen storage | | | | |
| technologies have advanced relatively little | | | | High power lithium ion batteries are "close |
| in recent years. | | | | to commercialization" for hybrid vehicle |
| | | | applications, the panel reports. |
| So, be it battery energy density or hydrogen | | | | |
| storage capacity and the resultant impact | | | | Importantly, for HEV applications Li Ion |
| each has on vehicle performance and range, in | | | | batteries have potentially lower cost than |
| particular, ZEV's continue to be perceived, | | | | NiMH because they promise to deliver the |
| at least by manufacturers and CARB's expert | | | | required power with smaller capacities and |
| panel as having limited immediate utility and | | | | lower specific cost. |
| therefore commercial prospects when compared | | | | |
| to fossil fuel alternatives. | | | | According to EV World sources, the next |
| | | | generation of Prius, due out probably now in |
| But all the news isn't bad. When discussing | | | | 2009, will use lithium ion instead of NiMH, |
| nickel metal hydride high power batteries | | | | packing more punch into a lighter, smaller |
| used in today's gasoline-electric hybrids, | | | | package than is possible with its current |
| the panel sees this technology as being | | | | battery. |
| "mature" and that they see the cost coming | | | | |
| down steadily as unit volume increases. | | | | But the report is less confident of Li ion |
| Today, auto makers like Ford and Toyota and | | | | technology being developed for PHEV |
| Honda pay between $2000 and $4000 for their | | | | applications, seeing the projected cost of |
| NiMH battery packs, but CARB's panel -- on | | | | $3500-4000 in mass production being above the |
| consultation with manufacturers -- see that | | | | cost of fuel savings (assuming, presumably, |
| dropping to between $1300 and $2500 in | | | | the absence of carbon taxes or peak oil, |
| volumes of a million units or more. | | | | either of which could drive the price of |
| | | | gasoline, along with everything else, much |
| But high power NiMH batteries are engineered | | | | higher). |
| specifically for the needs of today's | | | | |