| Tantalizingly close, but not quite ready | | | | Prius, not FPBEVs or plug-in hybrids |
| for prime time. That's the conclusion of | | | | [PHEV], which would travel further on |
| the latest Independent Expert Panel | | | | electric power, requiring more energy |
| report to the California Air Resources | | | | storage. For PHEVs you need a class of |
| Board (CARB) on the "Status and | | | | NiMH battery that offers both power and |
| Prospects for Zero Emission Vehicle | | | | energy density. The panel reported that |
| Technology." | | | | while such a battery would cost, in |
| For the last decade, California has | | | | volume, between $800-$1200 and give the |
| relied on experts to advise it on the | | | | owner an electric only range of 10-20 |
| progress of electric car technology in | | | | miles, their research turned up no |
| all its manifestations, from | | | | efforts among manufacturers to develop |
| battery-only EVs called "Full | | | | such a battery, even though the added |
| Performance Battery Electric Vehicles" | | | | cost would more than pay for itself in |
| or FPBEVs in the report to | | | | terms of fuels savings over the life of |
| hydrogen-fueled vehicles, including | | | | the vehicle. |
| those that burn it directly in an | | | | The third class of NiMH battery, the one |
| internal combustion engine (H2ICVs) and | | | | that has been used for years with |
| those that rely on fuel cells (FCEVs). | | | | surprising durable in vehicles like the |
| And with each report there has been | | | | Toyota RAV4 EV, is the high energy |
| progress; certainly not a pace that | | | | version. Here the executive summary |
| regulators and environmentalists would | | | | states... |
| wish to see, but progress, nonetheless. | | | | It is the conclusion of the Panel, |
| And the 2007 report doesn't break that | | | | however, that energy density is |
| pattern. It sees slow, but steady | | | | fundamentally limited and marginal for |
| progress in battery and fuel cell | | | | FPBEV applications, and costs remain as |
| development, but hurdles remain, both | | | | high as or higher than in 2000 and are |
| technologically and economically. | | | | unlikely to decline. High energy NiMH |
| That assessment is already being | | | | technology for possible FPBEV |
| challenged by electric car advocates who | | | | applications has not advanced in recent |
| see its conclusions still unduly | | | | years. |
| supportive of hydrogen fuel cell | | | | Electric car advocates, many of whom |
| technology, but having reviewed the | | | | have practical, day-to-day experience |
| 13-page executive summary, that | | | | with this type of battery, argue that we |
| appraisal seems unwarranted. In | | | | don't have to wait on advances in fuel |
| summarizing the findings of the panel, | | | | cells, hydrogen storage or lithium ion |
| which included not only evaluations of | | | | chemistry. The Panasonic batteries in |
| three key "candidate" technologies: | | | | their RAV4 EVs clearly demonstrate that |
| energy storage, hydrogen storage and | | | | we can make use of this battery today, |
| fuel cells but also interviews with and | | | | but because, some allege, the patents |
| questionnaires to battery and automobile | | | | are held by the unit of a major oil |
| manufacturers, they concluded that... | | | | company, it is being deliberately kept |
| ... at this time no fuel cell developer | | | | off the market. A more likely |
| has achieved the necessary requirements | | | | explanation is that the demand for |
| for automotive fuel cell | | | | nickel for use in high-strength steel in |
| commercialization. | | | | China and elsewhere is putting the |
| Further, on the question of hydrogen | | | | squeeze on nickel prices and not oil |
| storage, they observe. | | | | company greed. |
| Storing sufficient hydrogen on a vehicle | | | | The panel report is much more encouraged |
| to power it for adequate distance, | | | | by the progress in lithium chemistry |
| safely, and at reasonable cost, without | | | | development, stating in the summary, "Li |
| an excessive weight penalty has been and | | | | ion batteries are making impressive |
| remains a serious challenge for the | | | | technical progress worldwide especially |
| automobile industry and its suppliers. | | | | with regard to calendar life and cycle |
| ...Unlike other major technologies being | | | | life and safety, the areas of special |
| pursued in support of ZEVs, hydrogen | | | | concern for automotive applications. |
| storage technologies have advanced | | | | Promising new materials and chemistries |
| relatively little in recent years. | | | | are expanding the capabilities and |
| So, be it battery energy density or | | | | prospects of all Li ion technologies." |
| hydrogen storage capacity and the | | | | High power lithium ion batteries are |
| resultant impact each has on vehicle | | | | "close to commercialization" for hybrid |
| performance and range, in particular, | | | | vehicle applications, the panel reports. |
| ZEV's continue to be perceived, at least | | | | Importantly, for HEV applications Li Ion |
| by manufacturers and CARB's expert panel | | | | batteries have potentially lower cost |
| as having limited immediate utility and | | | | than NiMH because they promise to |
| therefore commercial prospects when | | | | deliver the required power with smaller |
| compared to fossil fuel alternatives. | | | | capacities and lower specific cost. |
| But all the news isn't bad. When | | | | According to EV World sources, the next |
| discussing nickel metal hydride high | | | | generation of Prius, due out probably |
| power batteries used in today's | | | | now in 2009, will use lithium ion |
| gasoline-electric hybrids, the panel | | | | instead of NiMH, packing more punch into |
| sees this technology as being "mature" | | | | a lighter, smaller package than is |
| and that they see the cost coming down | | | | possible with its current battery. |
| steadily as unit volume increases. | | | | But the report is less confident of Li |
| Today, auto makers like Ford and Toyota | | | | ion technology being developed for PHEV |
| and Honda pay between $2000 and $4000 | | | | applications, seeing the projected cost |
| for their NiMH battery packs, but CARB's | | | | of $3500-4000 in mass production being |
| panel -- on consultation with | | | | above the cost of fuel savings |
| manufacturers -- see that dropping to | | | | (assuming, presumably, the absence of |
| between $1300 and $2500 in volumes of a | | | | carbon taxes or peak oil, either of |
| million units or more. | | | | which could drive the price of gasoline, |
| But high power NiMH batteries are | | | | along with everything else, much |
| engineered specifically for the needs of | | | | higher). |
| today's gas-electric hybrids like the | | | | |