Electric car progress

Tantalizingly close, but not quite ready for prime time.hybrids like the Prius, not FPBEVs or plug-in hybrids
That's the conclusion of the latest Independent Expert[PHEV], which would travel further on electric power,
Panel report to the California Air Resources Boardrequiring more energy storage. For PHEVs you need a
(CARB) on the "Status and Prospects for Zeroclass of NiMH battery that offers both power and
Emission Vehicle Technology."energy density. The panel reported that while such a
For the last decade, California has relied on experts tobattery would cost, in volume, between $800-$1200
advise it on the progress of electric car technology inand give the owner an electric only range of 10-20
all its manifestations, from battery-only EVs called "Fullmiles, their research turned up no efforts among
Performance Battery Electric Vehicles" or FPBEVs inmanufacturers to develop such a battery, even though
the report to hydrogen-fueled vehicles, including thosethe added cost would more than pay for itself in terms
that burn it directly in an internal combustion engineof fuels savings over the life of the vehicle.
(H2ICVs) and those that rely on fuel cells (FCEVs).The third class of NiMH battery, the one that has been
And with each report there has been progress;used for years with surprising durable in vehicles like
certainly not a pace that regulators andthe Toyota RAV4 EV, is the high energy version. Here
environmentalists would wish to see, but progress,the executive summary states...
nonetheless. And the 2007 report doesn't break thatIt is the conclusion of the Panel, however, that energy
pattern. It sees slow, but steady progress in batterydensity is fundamentally limited and marginal for
and fuel cell development, but hurdles remain, bothFPBEV applications, and costs remain as high as or
technologically and economically.higher than in 2000 and are unlikely to decline. High
That assessment is already being challenged byenergy NiMH technology for possible FPBEV
electric car advocates who see its conclusions stillapplications has not advanced in recent years.
unduly supportive of hydrogen fuel cell technology, butElectric car advocates, many of whom have practical,
having reviewed the 13-page executive summary, thatday-to-day experience with this type of battery, argue
appraisal seems unwarranted. In summarizing thethat we don't have to wait on advances in fuel cells,
findings of the panel, which included not onlyhydrogen storage or lithium ion chemistry. The
evaluations of three key "candidate" technologies:Panasonic batteries in their RAV4 EVs clearly
energy storage, hydrogen storage and fuel cells butdemonstrate that we can make use of this battery
also interviews with and questionnaires to battery andtoday, but because, some allege, the patents are held
automobile manufacturers, they concluded that...by the unit of a major oil company, it is being
... at this time no fuel cell developer has achieved thedeliberately kept off the market. A more likely
necessary requirements for automotive fuel cellexplanation is that the demand for nickel for use in
commercialization.high-strength steel in China and elsewhere is putting the
Further, on the question of hydrogen storage, theysqueeze on nickel prices and not oil company greed.
observe.The panel report is much more encouraged by the
Storing sufficient hydrogen on a vehicle to power it forprogress in lithium chemistry development, stating in the
adequate distance, safely, and at reasonable cost,summary, "Li ion batteries are making impressive
without an excessive weight penalty has been andtechnical progress worldwide especially with regard to
remains a serious challenge for the automobile industrycalendar life and cycle life and safety, the areas of
and its suppliers.special concern for automotive applications. Promising
...Unlike other major technologies being pursued innew materials and chemistries are expanding the
support of ZEVs, hydrogen storage technologies havecapabilities and prospects of all Li ion technologies."
advanced relatively little in recent years.High power lithium ion batteries are "close to
So, be it battery energy density or hydrogen storagecommercialization" for hybrid vehicle applications, the
capacity and the resultant impact each has on vehiclepanel reports.
performance and range, in particular, ZEV's continue toImportantly, for HEV applications Li Ion batteries have
be perceived, at least by manufacturers and CARB'spotentially lower cost than NiMH because they promise
expert panel as having limited immediate utility andto deliver the required power with smaller capacities
therefore commercial prospects when compared toand lower specific cost.
fossil fuel alternatives.According to EV World sources, the next generation
But all the news isn't bad. When discussing nickel metalof Prius, due out probably now in 2009, will use lithium
hydride high power batteries used in today'sion instead of NiMH, packing more punch into a lighter,
gasoline-electric hybrids, the panel sees this technologysmaller package than is possible with its current
as being "mature" and that they see the cost comingbattery.
down steadily as unit volume increases. Today, autoBut the report is less confident of Li ion technology
makers like Ford and Toyota and Honda pay betweenbeing developed for PHEV applications, seeing the
$2000 and $4000 for their NiMH battery packs, butprojected cost of $3500-4000 in mass production
CARB's panel -- on consultation with manufacturers --being above the cost of fuel savings (assuming,
see that dropping to between $1300 and $2500 inpresumably, the absence of carbon taxes or peak oil,
volumes of a million units or more.either of which could drive the price of gasoline, along
But high power NiMH batteries are engineeredwith everything else, much higher).
specifically for the needs of today's gas-electric