| Predicting the future is tricky business. It's hard to | | | | 2006. Clearly they were right. Others placed their bet |
| predict the future of an industry, especially the | | | | on electric vehicles. Needless to say, they were wrong. |
| automobile industry. 10 years ago many industry exec's | | | | Everyone has an opinion about the automobile industry, |
| thought that mainstream vehicles achieving close to | | | | but few can predict with any certainty what'll happen |
| 100mpg would be commonplace. Jurgen Hubbert, once | | | | next year, let alone in the next decade.Over the last 10 |
| Chief of the passenger car division for | | | | years we've seen a new love affair with rear wheel |
| Mercedes-Benz AG said in a 1996 interview with | | | | drive cars, more fuel efficient engines, and safer |
| Automobile Magazine we will have "innovative new | | | | vehicles. Hybrids are gaining popularity and the SUV is |
| combustion engines. We will have fuel economy | | | | making way for the crossover utility vehicle. 10 years |
| between 56 and 95mpg". He thought this would | | | | ago Chrysler was a purely American company and |
| happen by 2006. Well, it's February 2006 and I'm still | | | | BMW just bought Rover. Since then, Daimler-Benz |
| waiting.One of the more famous predictions came | | | | "merged" (read bought) Chrysler Corp. to form |
| from a legend in the North American auto industry. Lee | | | | DaimlerChrysler and BMW admits buying Rover was a |
| Iacocca was speaking to Carroll Shelby (another | | | | huge mistake (they have since sold it). Nissan is now |
| legendary figure) in 1971 about the future of Toyota in | | | | largely owned by Renault, Porsche owns 20% of |
| North America. Shelby had just been offered a | | | | Volkswagen and General Motors and Ford are |
| Toyota dealership in California and wanted to know | | | | shedding tens of thousands of jobs in hopes of being |
| why Iacocca thought it would be a bad idea. Iacocca | | | | around for the next 10 years.10 years from now we'll |
| went on to say "because we're going to kick their | | | | almost certainly have far more fuel efficient drivetrains, |
| asses back into the Pacific Ocean". Iacocca was | | | | widely used GPS systems, and more niche vehicles. It'll |
| wrong and Toyota has grown to become the richest | | | | be a different decade than the one gone by, but as |
| car company in the world.But not all predictions are | | | | Yogi Berra once said, "The future ain't what it use to |
| wrong. 10 years ago many automobile executives | | | | be".Peter Johnson is the chief writer for |
| predicted that hybrids would become more popular by | | | | all-about-car-selection. |