Past Thoughts About the Future of the Automobile Industry

Predicting the future is tricky business. It's hard to2006. Clearly they were right. Others placed their bet
predict the future of an industry, especially theon electric vehicles. Needless to say, they were wrong.
automobile industry. 10 years ago many industry exec'sEveryone has an opinion about the automobile industry,
thought that mainstream vehicles achieving close tobut few can predict with any certainty what'll happen
100mpg would be commonplace. Jurgen Hubbert, oncenext year, let alone in the next decade.Over the last 10
Chief of the passenger car division foryears we've seen a new love affair with rear wheel
Mercedes-Benz AG said in a 1996 interview withdrive cars, more fuel efficient engines, and safer
Automobile Magazine we will have "innovative newvehicles. Hybrids are gaining popularity and the SUV is
combustion engines. We will have fuel economymaking way for the crossover utility vehicle. 10 years
between 56 and 95mpg". He thought this wouldago Chrysler was a purely American company and
happen by 2006. Well, it's February 2006 and I'm stillBMW just bought Rover. Since then, Daimler-Benz
waiting.One of the more famous predictions came"merged" (read bought) Chrysler Corp. to form
from a legend in the North American auto industry. LeeDaimlerChrysler and BMW admits buying Rover was a
Iacocca was speaking to Carroll Shelby (anotherhuge mistake (they have since sold it). Nissan is now
legendary figure) in 1971 about the future of Toyota inlargely owned by Renault, Porsche owns 20% of
North America. Shelby had just been offered aVolkswagen and General Motors and Ford are
Toyota dealership in California and wanted to knowshedding tens of thousands of jobs in hopes of being
why Iacocca thought it would be a bad idea. Iacoccaaround for the next 10 years.10 years from now we'll
went on to say "because we're going to kick theiralmost certainly have far more fuel efficient drivetrains,
asses back into the Pacific Ocean". Iacocca waswidely used GPS systems, and more niche vehicles. It'll
wrong and Toyota has grown to become the richestbe a different decade than the one gone by, but as
car company in the world.But not all predictions areYogi Berra once said, "The future ain't what it use to
wrong. 10 years ago many automobile executivesbe".Peter Johnson is the chief writer for
predicted that hybrids would become more popular byall-about-car-selection.