Housing Bubble, Interest Rates, Timber Costs; What Has Changed?

What has really changed in the housing market withnational product has 5% written over the new housing
regards to timber dumping from Canada, lumber costsmarket. This is significant and in 2000, 34% of all the
since the Professional Building Magazine issue in Sept.lumber for the new housing starts came from Canada,
2001. How is this affecting the housing market or thein 2001 37% and it is expected to be 30% even in
predicted housing bubble burst which was suppose to2002 with the newest tariff in place for anti-dumping
cripple the economy. We have seen the Federalduty of nearly 40%.These tariffs are too high and are
Reserve raise rates, lumber prices go up, still Americaanti-competitive. Canada should have policed them
was buying up new homes and joining the ownershipselves a little better and not taken such advantage of
society faster than at any other time in the history ofthe situation, but today we are all to blame. What I think
our nation.Unfortunately the ease to buy a house wasis the funniest thing as I read the old articles in the
truly too easy judging by the current foreclosure ratesbuilding industry is that Enron was selling lumber futures
and one might wish to ask why should young couplesduring this time and they would have been the ones
with only two to five percent down be buying a homewho took the bath as companies like US Homes, Pulte
anyway? That is not fiscally responsible. These buyersHomes and other major players had their prices locked
will be upside down in these homes in some marketsin earlier. You want to hear something else? The
almost as before the ink is dry. In other markets theyCanadians now wish to retaliate with less cooperation
will be growing equity extremely fast as long as theirof the pipeline for natural gas from Alaska, after all
local market holds out, but when things change; therethey sell us natural gas and oil (1 billion barrels) and any
will be more over all foreclosures. And they cannotpipeline easement situation cuts into their perceived
realize their equity because they will not be able to sellright to further offset our already 85 Billion Dollar per
their homes. If they use the equity to pay off creditperiod trade deficit. In British Columbia there are many
cards by re-financing before the prices stabilize theytowns out of work where the mills are located. Oh
will alleviate high interest rates but have alsoreally and what do you think happened to our towns in
committed themselves to more over all debt?WithWA, OR, ID and other places. If the free market
increased costs of interest rates, building materials; ifsystem could be evenly placed with proper
the houses cost an estimated $1000-2000 more, and Icooperation then we would not have had to take the
am talking about you basic starter home of modesthit in our towns and now they had to take the hit in
size 1400-2000 square feet; then fewer will qualify totheir towns. With the big builders locked in and the US
buy a home and chances are those who have not yetLumber and Truss companies forced to honor these
bought a home may not be able to secure financingcontracts by companies like Enron (ha ha), Pulte, etc. it
anyway; if they do, they pose a higher risk of loan fallwill be the little lumber companies and builders who get
out rates being thrust upon the mortgage arena. Ourhurt the most. So who wins? No one, see the
Commerce Department Imposed a 19.3%problem? I do.Will builders try to shave prices by not
countervailing duty on timber from Canada. It shouldpressure washing finished homes, yes the smaller ones
have been 10-14% max and only for 9 months, so USwill. Will they withhold payments to sub contractors
companies could get back on their feet without pissingtoo? Yes, will they cut corners to further cut their
off the envi-moron-mental-lists (someday I will explainlosses due to increased prices, yes. So what
exactly how we came up with that term). Our grosshappened?