The Future of Canadian Real Estate Market

Numbers clearly indicate that last year was a verythe USA. The most dangerous are "teaser"
successful one for Canadian real estate market. Salesmortgages that offer low initial rates, thenlater reset at
climbed over 520 000 units, up 7.6 percent from 2006a higher level, or other mortgages made to individuals
levels. This was the largest growth since 2002.with minimal income and no coverage contributed to
Transactions via the MLS systems have reachedthe crisis substantially. These products are not
more than 500,000 units sold. The average real estatecommon in Canada, however, new ones emerged on
sale price was up by 14.1% to $317,825 in Decemberthe Canadian market recently and subprime segment
2007 when compared to December 2006is expected to double in next five years.
However, year 2008 opened a number of questions. ItLower numbers of sales and rising new listings seen
wasn't only the US real estate market bubble, but alsorecently are obvious. The question is, whether it's just
oil and food price problems that made many peoplesimple trend correction, or bubble losing air faster and
believe recession is knocking at the back door again.faster.
Canadian economy has slowed down a bit at the endPredictions by experts remain optimistic. Resales are
of 2007 and GDP growth for Q1 2008 was negative:expected to drop, but still supposed to remain above
-0.1 per cent. Reasons? Export level is to blame, for465,000 in every of next two years. Decline in new
one. Due to problems in Canada's biggest partner,starts is expected as well, but with numbers still above
USA and weak US dollar, exports went down. Risingpast years average.
commodity prices are actually not bad for Canada.Interest rates are not supposed to change substantially.
Fossil fuel costs are rising, that is why more and moreA cut from 3.0% was expected in June and may be
nuclear power plants are being built in the world. Andstill possible in the near future. On the other hand, other
Canada is world's top uranium supplier, covering 25%commodity price turmoil may raise inflation and
of the world's needs.consequently interest rates in the future, making
The biggest world economy and our nearest and themortgages more expensive.
most important neighbour is USA. Canada wants toNet migration is believed to remain on high level of
know if we can experience the same real estateabout 200,000 people. People who will search for
problems as our neighbour.homes on the market! On the other hand, Canada's
But who is to blame for the real estate crisis in thebirth rate is decreasing, potentially lowering future
States?demand for housing.
After the Dot-com bubble and 9/11 events, FEDBaby boomers: First baby boomers from the
interest rates fell to 1% and real estate started1947-1966 period will retire. The question is whether
booming. It was very easy to get subprime mortgages.they will look up for recreational property in Canada, or
Properties were overpriced and than the bubblesell their house and move to Costa Rica?
bursted - everybody knows the story. Is this what theEnergy prices: probably will influence the structure of
future holds for Canada, too?demand in the future. Energy consuming huge houses
Well, not quite.in distant suburbs will be pushed by inner city modern
Subprime mortgages are the biggest difference. Theycondos.
can generally be defined as mortgages offered whenEverybody should make his or her own conclusion
home purchasers do not fit the banks' prime mortgagebased on the above facts. Canadian real estate is
customer profile. While they cover about 20% in USA,slowing down now and market is turning from strictly
Canadians seem much more conservative in thisseller driven to balanced one, with more affordable
question - similar mortgages create about 5% of thehousing. However, buying real estate will be still a good
market. Canadian loan policies are more strict than ininvestment, with price growth beating the inflation rate.