| Global Warming is a term denoting a
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| | strengthened over cooler water and have
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| gradual warming of the Earths average
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| | weakened over warmer water. There may be
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| temperature. The term has become
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| | a small "boost" to a hurricanes strength
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| synonymous to the Earths warming
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| | as it moves over the Gulf Stream, if
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| exclusively due to man-made effects,
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| | upper air wind profiles do not change
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| especially carbon dioxide. Carbon
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| | much. Some of the computer generated
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| dioxide concentrations have increased
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| | hurricane models have this bias built in
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| from 300 parts per million to 384 parts
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| | and will rapidly strengthen a tropical
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| per million since 1900, with the most
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| | cyclone if predicted to go over a warm
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| accelerated increase during the past 40
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| | pool of water.
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| years. Some scientists have drawn the
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| | The recent upturn in tropical cyclone
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| conclusion that the increase in the
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| | activity was predicted long before Global
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| Earths average temperature (about 1°F
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| | Warming became a household name. The
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| since 1975) is essentially solely based
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| | tropical
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| on man-made activities such as the
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| | Atlantic has been known to vary in
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| burning of fossil fuels, biomass burning,
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| | cycles, and this recent upturn was
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| and deforestation.
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| | expected. If you were to compare the
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| Causes of Global Warming
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| | period from 1900 to about 1950, with the
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| The Earths atmosphere is made up of
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| | 1950s until now, you would find an actual
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| different gases. Nitrogen makes up 78% of
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| | decrease in the average number of
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| the total composition, Oxygen 21%, Argon
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| | hurricanes and their intensity. It also
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| 1% and traces gases .1%. Carbon dioxide
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| | is noted that the upswing in hurricane
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| makes up most of the volume of the rare
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| | numbers over the past ten years or more
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| gases. Water vapor varies from almost 0%
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| | has been only in the North Atlantic
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| over the deserts to 4% over the oceans.
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| | basin. Other hurricane formation regions
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| Water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane,
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| | have not shown this same trend.
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| ozone, and nitrous oxide are the gases of
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| | The Effects of Global Warming on
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| interest since these are the greenhouse
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| | Hurricanes: Summary
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| gases. Greenhouse gases can reradiate
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| | There has been a noted increase in the
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| heat or trap heat absorbed by the Earth
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| | number of hurricanes in the Atlantic
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| from the sun. Water vapor is by far the
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| | Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico
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| largest mechanism for heat retention out
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| | since the mid-1990s. The long term
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| of the greenhouse gases.
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| | average is that ten tropical storms will
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| In the past, the Earths orbital
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| | form per year,of which about six will
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| eccentricity, variance of the tilt and
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| | become hurricanes. Since the mid-1990s
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| wobble have led to periods of warmer
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| | the average has been fifteen tropical
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| weather. Even though the solar energy
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| | storms, of which eight have become
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| from the sun is considered a constant, a
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| | hurricanes. There has also been an
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| slight change could cause temperature
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| | upward trend in the concentration of the
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| fluctuations. Recently, Mars has also
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| | greenhouse gas carbon dioxidedue to mans
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| shown a decrease in ice coverage without
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| | activities over the past 100 years.
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| greenhouse gas changes. The cause for
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| | During this time, hurricanes have gone
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| the reduction in aerial coverage is
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| | through cycles where they have been more
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| unknown.
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| | numerous, such as the cycle that we are
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| In summary, there are three mechanisms
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| | in now. Some scientists have drawn a one
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| which would cause global warming, or in
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| | to one correlation between the Earths
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| other words allow for a warming of the
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| | temperature increase and the number of
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| Earths average temperature. These are:
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| | hurricanes and their intensity. As we
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| (1) solar energy variance, (2) gradual
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| | have noted, the number one factor in
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| changes in the Earths orbit, tilt, and
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| | tropical cyclone intensity is related to
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| wobble, and (3) greenhouse gas changes.
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| | the atmospheric wind shear profile.
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| It is difficult to calculate what
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| | There is even some research that suggests
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| percentage of the recent warming could be
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| | that higher temperatures couldactually
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| attributed to human activities. We can
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| | increase the wind shear profile resulting
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| eliminate changes in the Earths orbit,
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| | in a decrease in hurricane activity. The
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| tilt, and wobble causing a temperature
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| | upward cycle in hurricane numbers is
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| increase since these are long term
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| | expected to continue for several more
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| effects.
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| | years. If this trend were to continue
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| What are the Effects of Global Warming on
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| | for a considerably longer period, only
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| Hurricanes?
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| | then could one draw a conclusion that
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| There is a common misconception that
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| | warmer temperatures have played some part
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| since the global temperature has
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| | to cause an increase in tropical cyclone
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| increased, hurricanes also must increase
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| | formation.
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| in number and intensity. The primary
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| | Rich Johnson - Expert Hurricane Forecasts
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| factor in the ability of a hurricane to
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| | | Travel Resources
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| strengthen or weaken is the wind shear
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| | Rich is a Certified Broadcast
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| profile of the atmosphere - not water
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| | Meteorologist with 25 years of weather
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| temperature. It always has been warm
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| | forecasting and television experience.
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| enough in the tropics to produce
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| | His expertise is in tropical meteorology
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| hurricanes. This temperature equates to a
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| | forecasting hurricanes. His website
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| sea surface temperature of about 80°F.
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| | TropicalWeather.net is dedicated to
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| If you study the behavior of hurricanes
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| | helping travelers cope with tropical
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| you can find cases where hurricanes have
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| | weather.
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