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Does global warming affect hurricanes?

Global Warming is a term denoting a gradualwater. There may be a small "boost" to a
warming of the Earths average temperature.hurricanes strength as it moves over the Gulf
The term has become synonymous to the EarthsStream, if upper air wind profiles do not
warming exclusively due to man-made effects,change much. Some of the computer generated
especially carbon dioxide. Carbon dioxidehurricane models have this bias built in and
concentrations have increased from 300 partswill rapidly strengthen a tropical cyclone if
per million to 384 parts per million sincepredicted  to  go  over a warm pool of water.
1900, with the most accelerated increase
during the past 40 years. Some scientistsThe recent upturn in tropical cyclone
have drawn the conclusion that the increaseactivity was predicted long before Global
in the Earths average temperature (aboutWarming became a household name. The
1°F since 1975) is essentially solelytropical
based on man-made activities such as the
burning of fossil fuels, biomass burning, andAtlantic has been known to vary in cycles,
deforestation.and this recent upturn was expected. If you
were to compare the period from 1900 to about
Causes  of  Global  Warming1950, with the 1950s until now, you would
find an actual decrease in the average number
The Earths atmosphere is made up of differentof hurricanes and their intensity. It also
gases. Nitrogen makes up 78% of the totalis noted that the upswing in hurricane
composition, Oxygen 21%, Argon 1% and tracesnumbers over the past ten years or more has
gases .1%. Carbon dioxide makes up most ofbeen only in the North Atlantic basin. Other
the volume of the rare gases. Water vaporhurricane formation regions have not shown
varies from almost 0% over the deserts to 4%this  same  trend.
over the oceans. Water vapor, carbon
dioxide, methane, ozone, and nitrous oxideThe Effects of Global Warming on Hurricanes:
are the gases of interest since these are theSummary
greenhouse gases. Greenhouse gases can
reradiate heat or trap heat absorbed by theThere has been a noted increase in the number
Earth from the sun. Water vapor is by farof hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean,
the largest mechanism for heat retention outCaribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico since the
of  the  greenhouse  gases.mid-1990s. The long term average is that ten
tropical storms will form per year,of which
In the past, the Earths orbital eccentricity,about six will become hurricanes. Since the
variance of the tilt and wobble have led tomid-1990s the average has been fifteen
periods of warmer weather. Even though thetropical storms, of which eight have become
solar energy from the sun is considered ahurricanes. There has also been an upward
constant, a slight change could causetrend in the concentration of the greenhouse
temperature fluctuations. Recently, Mars hasgas carbon dioxidedue to mans activities over
also shown a decrease in ice coverage withoutthe past 100 years. During this time,
greenhouse gas changes. The cause for thehurricanes have gone through cycles where
reduction  in  aerial  coverage  is  unknown.they have been more numerous, such as the
cycle that we are in now. Some scientists
In summary, there are three mechanisms whichhave drawn a one to one correlation between
would cause global warming, or in other wordsthe Earths temperature increase and the
allow for a warming of the Earths averagenumber of hurricanes and their intensity. As
temperature. These are: (1) solar energywe have noted, the number one factor in
variance, (2) gradual changes in the Earthstropical cyclone intensity is related to the
orbit, tilt, and wobble, and (3) greenhouseatmospheric wind shear profile. There is
gas changes. It is difficult to calculateeven some research that suggests that higher
what percentage of the recent warming couldtemperatures couldactually increase the wind
be attributed to human activities. We canshear profile resulting in a decrease in
eliminate changes in the Earths orbit, tilt,hurricane activity. The upward cycle in
and wobble causing a temperature increasehurricane numbers is expected to continue for
since  these  are  long  term  effects.several more years. If this trend were to
continue for a considerably longer period,
What are the Effects of Global Warming ononly then could one draw a conclusion that
Hurricanes?warmer temperatures have played some part to
cause an increase in tropical cyclone
There is a common misconception that sinceformation.
the global temperature has increased,
hurricanes also must increase in number andRich Johnson - Expert Hurricane Forecasts |
intensity. The primary factor in the abilityTravel  Resources
of a hurricane to strengthen or weaken is the
wind shear profile of the atmosphere - notRich is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist
water temperature. It always has been warmwith 25 years of weather forecasting and
enough in the tropics to produce hurricanes.television experience. His expertise is in
This temperature equates to a sea surfacetropical meteorology forecasting hurricanes.
temperature of about 80°F. If you studyHis website TropicalWeather.net is dedicated
the behavior of hurricanes you can find casesto helping travelers cope with tropical
where hurricanes have strengthened overweather.
cooler water and have weakened over warmer



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